If you type sportsbetting bankroll management into your search engine you are likely to find hundreds of articles filled with nothing but misinformation. The 1-5% unit system is a dangerous lie that turns thousands of novice sportsbettors into career losers each year. In this short guide I will not only prove why the latter unit system is flawed, but I will also teach you the secret to correct sportsbetting bankroll management.
Bad Bankroll Management
Why 1-5% Does Not Work
The reason why risking 1-5% of your starting or current bankroll per game does not work is because someone who is free-styling their picks cannot determine when their advantage is five-times as great as a 1-unit play. Profitable sportsbetting has little to do with sports knowledge and everything to do with understanding the betting market. Oddsmakers do not release lines that are strictly based on the outcome probability of a match. This is to say that both sides of a football spread will not win 50% of the time. The bookmaker will adjust the line in order to control how their customers are betting on the game. This is done with the goal of either achieving a balance in action or taking a position on the game (in which a larger percentage of the potential-payout is placed on the side of a market that has an increased statistical disadvantage).
This means that profitable sportsbetting starts with determining which side of the game has a positive margin between the offered line and the market’s expected value (which the line if it was strictly based on win percentage). We refer to this to be a wager with positive expected value. If a team will win 50% of the time and theyare listed at +140 (risk $100 to profit $140) then that is a bet you are obligated to make. You must approach every bet you place with this methodology. Anyone who claims that they are a winning gambler because they watch every game or because they have extensive sports knowledge is a fraud. Never talk to them again.
Now that we have an idea what oddsmakers are up to it is time to dismantle the disgraceful 1-5% sportsbetting bankroll management scam. In order to be five-times as confident in one play over another you would need to say that your advantage over the expected value is five-fold that of the plays that are just surpassing your lower qualification bound. I would imagine there are very few people in the world who could consistently do this without the use of a math model that projects the expected win percentage, point margin, and total of each game. And if you did have access to one of these you would be using a variation of the Kelly Criterion instead of reading this article.
Sportsbetting Bankroll Management
Sportsbetting Bankroll Management
Are you ready to find out the secret to sportsbetting bankroll management? It is fairly complex so you might need to read it a few times; Risk the same amount for each wager. Unless you are numerically quantifying the expected values of your spreads and totals there is no reason why you should need to claim that one pick is more confident than another. There is nothing wrong with free-styling your bets. Whenever you believe you have found a market that has a qualifying advantage place a wager. It might feel unnatural at first but over a sufficient sample size you will notice the results.
How Much Should I Bet Per Game?
There are a few different approaches to the Risk The Same Amount Each Bet method. I typically recommend wagering a fixed percentage of your current bankroll. This will allow your wager sizes to naturally increase and decrease based on your form. As for the exact percentage it varies between individuals. 1% is normally safe since it implies a $100 risk for a $10,000 bankroll but it is meaningless if you are not going to stick with the system.
If any of the concepts in this guide were new to you I would highly recommend reading my article titled The Biggest Sportsbetting Mistakes. Opinions are commonly floated as facts in the betting world so it is very possible that improper bankroll management is not your only bad habit. If you are wondering why I did not go into detail on the Kelly Criterion it is because this guide is aimed towards novice and intermediate sportsbettors. Improper use of the Kelly Criterion is far more dangerous than the 1-5% unit system. We will discuss Kelly variations in a future article dedicated to math modelling.