A European bookmaker is offering betting odds on who Donald Trump’s Secretary of State will be. Popular bookie Paddy Power made noise after they paid out Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 US Election weeks before voting day only to have to gut themselves a second time. With that said, take these Donald Trump Secretary of State betting odds with a grain of salt.
Donald Trump Secretary of State Betting Odds
I have been tweeting out some of the offered Donald Trump cabinet betting props over the past few days. I find the line movement a lot more interesting than the prices themselves. Here are the Donald Trump Secretary of State betting odds available on Paddy Power last night (November 21st):
Mitt Romney was off-the-board late last night and went online with a 5/4 price around 7:00 AM eastern time. Rudy Giuliani who had been rumored to be the front-runner to become Donald Trump’s Secretary of State had the shortest odds at 4/7. Here are the updated prices as of this evening:
Mitt Romney is the current favorite to secure the position at 4/11, while Rudy Giuliani trails him at 5/4. To the dismay of his core supporters Donald Trump appears to have backtracked on his campaign promises to drain the swamp. Today he announced that he will not be prosecuting Hillary Clinton (who entered the day at 3/1 to be jailed by 2020). Please keep in mind these are low-limit betting markets which should be taken lightly.
Secretary of State Prediction
Donald Trump and Mitt Romney have met multiple times over the last few days which could account for the swing in odds. Remember nobody really knows what is going on in The Donald’s head, and significant shifts are largely based on how customers interact with the low-limit markets. With Senator Jeff Sessions being nominated for the position of Attorney General it becomes unclear what alternative position Rudy Giuliani would receive if not Secretary of State.
Despite the shift in odds I predict that Rudy Giuliani will become the next Secretary of State. I believe there is a greater than 50% chance of this occurring, making a plus-money wager at 5/4 a decent bet. A lot of the decisions that Donald Trump has made so far have gone against his campaign promises. I personally believe that he is compromising with traditional conservatives in order to unite the party as much as possible heading into 2017. Trump cares about what his supporters think of him and I would be surprised if every decision he makes goes against them.