I initially did not plan on posting picks until the site was completed but Stephan finally convinced me. I will be releasing a series of videos each week where I release my NFL picks and discuss the lines that I am monitoring. This is done with the intention of getting the best available price amongst the weekly line movement. I will neatly compile all of the videos and picks into a weekly article where I will track my record.
Some Notes
Before We Get Started
There are a few things about this series that I want to mention. I am strictly going to be using the techniques described in the guides that we post on the site. For the sake of this series I will not be using any form of model or projection software in order to prove that you can make money betting on sports with the right approach. Some other notes:
- I will be grading all of my picks against Pinnacle lines. While this is a non-American sportsbook they do accept high-limit action resulting in what I personally believe is the most accurate reflection of the current betting market. In the real world I obviously advise that you line-shop for the best available prices.
- I will be risking a fixed percentage of my tracking bankroll each game. I will start off with $100,000 and will risk 1% of my carryover balance heading into each week. This is done with the intention of proving that the 1-5 and 1-10 “unit” systems are fraudulent and that you should risk the same fixed percentage or amount on each play if you are not using a math model.
- I am going to do my best to predict the best possible time to lock-in each wager. Remember there is a delay between the time the bet is tracked in the video and the time the video is posted. I am going to do my best to release each segment as soon as possible.
NFL Picks Week 4.1
NFL Picks Week 4.1
- Play: Falcons ML (+150)
- Play: Falcons +3 (+108)
- Play: Giants +4.5 (-105)
- Watch: Texans -4.5 (want -4)
- Watch: Lions under 48 (want 49)
- Watch: Chiefs +5 (want +5.5)
NFL Picks Week 4.2
NFL Picks Week 4.2
Here are the plays locked in on October 2nd at noon eastern. We got a better line on one of the games that we were monitoring which was the Houston Texans -3.5 (instead of -4.5). The Detroit Lions total did not go up as anticipated. I had to pass on the Chiefs +5 because it moved in the opposite direction that I had projected. We got better lines on the Falcons ML and spread, along with the Giants.
- Play: Texans -3.5 (-107)
- Play: Lions under 48 (-105)
Season Record
Season Record
I will update this section in each week’s article. I am using a starting bankroll of $100,000 for tracking purposes and I will be risking a fixed 1% of my weekly entry balance. So for this week’s picks I will be risking a flat $1000 per pick:
- Falcons ML (+150)
- Falcons +3 (+108)
- Giants +4.5 (-105)
- Texans -3.5 (-107)
- Lions/Bears under 48 (-105)
Full summary of the plays:
Atlanta Falcons ML (+150)
Atlanta Falcons +3 (+108)
Detroit Lions/Chicago Bears under 48 (-105)
Houston Texans -3.5 (-107)
New York Giants +4.5 (-105)
Unless there is significant line movement I do not anticipate adding any more plays this week.
If you can’t see today’s video it’s because it is processing. It should be up in a matter of minutes but the added plays were the Texans -3.5 and Lions under 48. I am passing on the Chiefs since the line moved from +5 to +3 when I was anticipating it would go to +5.5 or +6.