Tracking Bill Simmons Week 1

Tracking Bill Simmons NFL Picks

The tough thing about doing this is that there is no way of knowing exactly what Bill is betting. There is a difference between a passing prediction and a confident wager. I will be making a distinction between these. For example Bill said he thinks the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be a wild card team this year because he likes storylines. I will not be counting that as a qualifying prediction to be considered a wager. Bill and Sal did show interest in betting on the Panthers in the opening game which I will consider a wager. If you see something that I missed or disagree with my classifications feel free to send me a tweet on Twitter (@nitrobetting) so I can correct it.

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal NFL Picks

Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal got together to predict the lines for the opening weeks’ games. I will be listing all qualifying predictions made by both of them but will only be tracking Bill in this series of articles. I will be tracking Sal in a separate string of posts:

• Cousin Sal’s Super Bowl pick is the Kansas City Chiefs (23/1)
• Cousin Sal parlayed Lions/Browns/49ers to miss the playoffs. Bill wanted to add the Eagles to that (UNQ).
• Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal showed confidence in the Carolina Panthers -3 against Denver because Trevor Siemian is not good.
• Bill Simmons took the Green Bay Packers -5.5 against the Jacksonville Jaguars because Blake Bortles pads his stats in garbage time and the Packers should not be affected by the heat.

Bill Simmons and Joe House NFL Picks

Bill Simmons released his Friday Rollin’ podcast with Joe House on… Friday (which is a surprise). On the show Bill introduced a new segment where they will each be making 3 football picks each week. I will be keeping track of both of their picks along with their reasoning. We know that Bill enjoys narratives and House loves random trends so expect a lot of that:

• Joe House likes the San Diego Chargers +6.5 at the Kansas City Chiefs. He says the Chiefs ended last season 8-8 ATS last year. Over their 10 game winning streak they only beat 2 winning teams while the Chargers lost close games. Phillip Rivers is 10-2-1 as a road underdog in division games against the spread. Andy Reid not a great record ATS in home openers (5-9-1).

• Bill Simmons likes the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 at the Atlanta Falcons. He reminds us that he loves storylines. He is a big fan of slimmed-down Jameis. He can see them going 10-6 or 11-5 (and making the Wild Card, as he mentioned in his last podcast). Bill believes that Jameis Winston is one of two players that will become great this season (the other being Khalil Mack).

• Joe House goes against Bill with the Atlanta Falcons -2.5. He cites that Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is 8-0 ATS and SU in home openers. He says that all Atlanta’s offensive players are healthy. House likes the angle of Atlanta being swept by the Bucs last season since they will want revenge. Bill disagrees on that angle. Joe ends off by saying they will cover with a field goal.

• Bill Simmons’ second pick is the Baltimore Ravens -3 at home to the Buffalo Bills. He says the Bills are missing a ton of players and that he is not sold on Rex Ryan. Simmons says the Ravens are a sleeper team with a bunch of veterans. He expects to be surprised that they were only favored by 5 by the end of the game.

• Joe House’s final pick is the Chicago Bears +6 at Houston. He says nobody should be receiving 6 points against the Texans. He states that the last taste people have of them are their disastrous performance in the playoffs last season. House says the Bears were good on the road last year and have better offensive players. He ends off by saying this is a play on the number.

• Bill’s final pick was the Washington Redskins +3.5 hosting the Pittsburgh Steleers. He likes Kirk Cousins. He says this feels like a 3-point game with a chance of Washington winning. The only thing he is worried about is 20,000 Steelers fans showing up to the game. Bill says that every week he will be picking one game where the line looks off. He says he does not believe both teams are very far apart.

Other notes: Bill said he had 4 games that he liked for his final segment pick. These were the Oakland Raiders +1.5, Detroit Lions +3.5, and the Los Angeles Rams +2.5. I will be including these in the overall record as qualifying predictions.

Question – Hindsight Picks

I want to reach out to those of you who follow me on Twitter. What do you think I should do with the picks that Bill Simmons only mentions after the game? After listening to him for a few years I believe that he is more likely to mention bad beats. Should I factor these in to the record? I think I will keep it as pre-game predictions only. Let me know what you think on Twitter.