I have been tracking Bill Simmons’ NFL picks for the 2016-17 season. Each week I gather his predictions from his podcast and Twitter feed and I summarize them below. You can check out last week’s article and the corresponding recap. Heading into Week 3 Bill’s overall record is 8-8-0 (-$800) assuming a $1K bet size. Here are Bill Simmons’ NFL picks for this upcoming weekend.
Cousin Sal Podcast Picks
Cousin Sal Podcast Picks
Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal recorded their Guess The Lines podcast on Wednesday. I have listened to the show in order to collect Bill’s Week 3 picks. On Monday someone contacted me through Twitter DM asking me to list all of the predictions made on the Wednesday podcast like I do with the Friday one. I will highlight the qualifying picks in boldface:
- Bill’s Thursday Night pick is the New England Patriots +1.5 hosting the Houston Texans.
- Bill says the Jacksonville Jaguars are officially in the out-of-it category.
- Carolina, Denver, Pittsburgh, and New England are his top-four teams.
- Cousin Sal proposed a wager on Under 1.5 0-2 teams to make the playoffs. Bill agreed, stating that none of them besides the Colts have a chance to make it. I will qualify this prediction and will include it in the record at the end of the season along with their futures wagers.
- Cousin Sal says the Green Bay Packers should win the division easily now that Adrian Peterson is injured.
- Bill Simmons said he likes the Detroit Tigers +7.5 against the Green Bay Packers. He brought this up again on the Friday podcast questioning if this was the week where the Packers showed up. I will be qualifying this prediction.
- Bill mentioned that he does not think the Ravens are any good despite starting the season 2-0. He later contradicted this by saying they might grab a Wild Card spot from the Bengals.
- Bill likes the Cleveland Browns +10. He said he likes anybody getting double-digit points against the Miami Dolphins. I will be qualifying this prediction.
- Bill mentioned that he wants to put the Giants -4.5 in a teaser. He did not elaborate on this any further so I will not be qualifying this prediction in any way.
- He ended off the show saying that he likes the San Francisco 49ers +9 against the Seahawks because Seattle cannot block or score. I was going to qualify this pick until he mentioned that he does not bet against Seattle at home on the Friday Rollin’ podcast, and that he was going to stay away from the game.
Joe House Podcast Picks
- Joe House‘s first NFL pick was Carolina Panthers -7 hosting the Minnesota Vikings. He says the game will be too much pressure for Sam Bradford. He does not thinking the Vikings losing Peterson is a big deal. He believes the Panthers defense will be too good and that Minnesota will not be able to score. Bill says he is staying away from this game.
- Bill Simmons‘ first pick for Week 3 was Pittsburgh Steelers -4 against the Philadelphia Eagles. He is not buying into the Eagles just becasue they won against two weak opponents. Bill has the Steelers as the second best team in the league. He believes there will be a lot of Pittsburgh fans traveling to the game.
- Joe House‘s second pick is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 hosting the Los Angeles Rams. He expects a bounce-back from Winston after having his worst game of his career. The Rams have yet to score a touchdown, and he does not believe they will reach 10 points in this match. He cited an obscure trend stating that the Rams are 1-8 straight-up and against the spread in Game 3 over the last 9 seasons.
- Bill Simmons‘ second pick is also the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5. He agreed with House that the Rams are going to have trouble getting to 10 points and that he is confident the Bucs will score at least 20. Bill says he thought Tampa Bay had a chance to come back and win against the Cardinals. He refuses to let their Week 2 performance scare them since he believes Arizona are the 5th best team in the league and they were desperate for the win.
- Joe House‘s final pick is the New Orleans Saints -2.5 hosting the Atlanta Falcons. He says this is going to be an all-time shootout. He contradicts his pick by saying the Saints are no longer a lock at home against the spread (4-9-1 ATS over their last 15 home games), but he is taking them to cover anyways since they only need to win by a field goal. He says that because it will be a shootout he would rather have his money on Drew Brees instead of Matt Ryan. He ended off by saying he does not like the injuries in the Saints secondary but he does not care. He also mentioned that he likes the over at any number.
- Bill Simmons‘ final Week 3 NFL pick was the Oakland Raiders +1 at Tennessee. He says they did not handle success very well last week. He believes their defense will be better, and he expects Khalil Mack to show his presence. Tennessee’s offense could not move the ball against Minnesota, and the only reason they won against Detroit was due to penalties and opposition injuries. Bill says he still believes the Raiders will be a 9-7 or 10-6 team so he has to bet them this week. He ends off with saying that the Raiders have the number one offense in the league at the moment and that Mariota will not be able to match it.
Bill Simmons mentioned that he likes the San Francisco 49ers +9.5 because they proved that they can get garbage time points last week against Carolina. He also mentioned that he liked this pick on Wednesday’s show with Cousin Sal. However he sounded unsure; stating that he does not like to bet against Seattle at home. For now I will not be qualifying the pick. He also said he likes the Arizona Cardinals -4 at Buffalo but he did not want to take three favorites for the contest. I will be qualifying that pick since he implied he just did not want to use it for the contest.
Bill Simmons NFL Picks Week 3
Bill Simmons NFL Picks Week 3
Here are Bill Simmons’ NFL Picks Week 3 collected from his podcast and Twitter feed:
- New England Patriots +1.5
- Detroit Tigers +7.5
- Cleveland Browns +10
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5
- Pittsburgh Steelers -4
- Oakland Raiders +1
- Arizona Cardinals -4
I have also made note of his season-long wager of Under 1.5 0-2 teams to make the playoffs proposed by Cousin Sal. These teams include: Miami, Buffalo, Cleveland, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Washington, Chicago, and New Orleans.
Bill Simmons Betting Record
- Week 1: Carolina Panthers -3.5 (-$1100)
- Week 1: Green Bay Packers -5.5 (-$1100)
- Week 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (+$1000)*
- Week 1: Baltimore Ravens -3 (+$1000)*
- Week 1: Washington Redskins +3.5 (-$1100)*
- Week 1: Oakland Raiders +1.5 (+$1000)*
- Week 1: Detroit Lions +3.5 (+$1000)*
- Week 1: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (-$1100)
- Week 2: New York Jets -1 (+$1000)
- Week 2: Tennessee Titans +6 (+$1000)*
- Week 2: Carolina Panthers -13 (+$1000)*
- Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 (-$1100)*
- Week 2: Houston Texans -2.5 (+$1000)
- Week 2: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 (-$1100)
- Week 2: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-$1100)*
- Week 2: New York Giants -4.5 (-$1100)*